As progressive socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani surges ahead in New York City’s mayoral race, some Staten Island residents are making an increasingly familiar threat: if he wins, they’re leaving.
These warnings come as Staten Island, considered one of New York City’s most conservative boroughs, faces a demographic and political reckoning that has been building for years. According to maps from The NYC Election Atlas, in the last two presidential elections, 70% of Staten Islanders voted for President Trump. Due to Staten Island being a Republican stronghold in a city that’s largely blue, residents have been weary of democratic success. This mayoral election has created tension and has left many residents torn about escaping the city’s constant political landscape.
“If Mamdani wins, I’m packing up and moving out of Staten Island,” said Marc Garafano, a 58 year–old veteran at John Shea’s Republican campaign kick-off rally for the North Shore District council.
Garafano has lived on the North Shore for 22 years, after moving from Brooklyn. He served as the president of Staten Island Fleet Week and has been involved with the group for 15 years. Once a proud Democrat, even attending former President Barack Obama’s inauguration before later cutting ties with the party seven years ago, Garafano has found comfort in the Republican party, but fears Republicans stand no chance against the likes of Mamdani. He believes politicians like Mamdani will ruin the livelihood of families in Staten Island by taking advantage of their tax dollars. If a Democratic candidate is elected into office this November, Garafano will be gone.
Residents are fearful whether any of the mayoral candidates can hold their own against Mamdani whose victory seems inevitable. Despite this, Curtis Sliwa, the Republican mayoral candidate, is confident he will win.
“I’ve collected more contributions in the last two quarters than Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams combined,” Sliwa said on the bus heading to John Shea’s kick-off rally. “All three candidates have their billionaires. I don’t have any billionaires and I don’t want them. I am the populist blue collar Republican.”
Both The New York Times and Marist Polls show Mamdani with a clear advantage, making Sliwa’s victory increasingly unlikely. About 45% of New Yorkers on the street said they would vote for Mamdani, whereas only about 15% would vote for Sliwa.
In the face of Mamdani’s undenying popularity, Sliwa is still determined that he will win the hearts of Staten Islanders.
“It’s like the T.V. show Everybody Loves Raymond, everyone loves Curtis,” he said. “Nobody has anything bad to say about Curtis, they’re not on the subways, they’re not on the ferry, they’re not riding the bus. That’s where the vote is.”
While Sliwa remains confident, others have concerns.
Trump has strongly voiced concerns about Mamdani’s rise labeling him a “communist” and according to media outlets like ABC News, The Hill and Fox News he “would like to see two people drop out [of the race],” referring to Sliwa, and Adams in favor of a Cuomo victory. Trump has also been accused of incentivising the incumbent mayor and Sliwa with jobs.
While Sliwa’s outcome is still uncertain, he does have some loyal supporters on Staten Island. Michael Hayes, 31, a member of the Staten Island Young Republicans, acknowledged that many Staten Islanders are behind Sliwa.
“Many of [us] like what Curtis stands for,” Hayes said. “A lot of people on Staten Islanders are police officers, and firefighters. They work for the municipal government. And so whether, if he has a shot [to get elected], never say never.”
(Photo by Elijah Megginson).
Staten Island has had a history of political unrest. In 1993 Staten Island nearly seceded from New York entirely due to frustration with The Fresh Kills Landfill. According to City and State New York, approximately 65% of residents felt like they would be better removed from New York.
Although this partition was stopped, people have been leaving New York rapidly. According to Hudson Valley and Times Union an estimated 55,926 people left New York for New Jersey and 42,637 left for Pennsylvania in 2023. With many people leaving New York, Staten Islanders may follow suit if the election doesn’t go their way.
Twenty-one-year-old Aiden McCallion, a Staten Island native, has watched this exodus firsthand.
“I mean, my neighborhood, pretty much everybody I grew up with has moved to Pennsylvania or Jersey because they’re like, I can’t deal with New York policies anymore,” McCallion said. “And if that’s been the case over the last few mayors and governors, then when somebody like Mamdani comes in who is proposing to do even more, I think that exodus from New York City will be much more realized.”
McCallion doesn’t think the threats are idle: “I don’t think a lot of people that are saying that are full of shit,” he said. “I think they actually mean it. You can disagree with somebody’s social policies, and it’s a bit easier to stomach. But when their financial policies hurt you, you may actually leave.”
McCallion, like Garafano, are skeptical about the future of Staten Island. What seemed like a utopia is now feeling like a nightmare for younger and older residents alike. Sean O’Shaughnessy, a 33-year-old Staten Islander, said that many residents now face a dilemma.
“If the options right now are chaos or status quo, I’m going to go with status quo,” O’Shaughnessy said, referring to potentially voting for Andrew Cuomo despite previously opposing him as governor. “If you’re going to drive businesses out of New York, then you could potentially drive Staten Islanders out of New York the same way.”
Many Staten Islanders feel like local businesses and property owners will suffer economically at the hands of Mamdani. Staten Island’s potential exodus would fit into broader national migration patterns. The borough has long felt disconnected from Manhattan-centric politics. Said O’Shaughnessy: “Staten Island is different than Manhattan, it’s different than Brooklyn, it’s different than Queens, different place. So it doesn’t necessarily always apply.”
The repeated threats to leave — whether over Mamdani specifically or New York policies generally — reflect a borough that sees itself as increasingly out of step with the direction of the city it’s technically part of.
Krystal Porter, 29, who grew up on Staten Island but now lives in Brooklyn, describes Staten Island as a relic of the past.
“You know, if you take a look around Staten Island, it doesn’t really feel like you’re living in 2025 in New York City,” she said. “It almost feels like you’ve gone back in time a bit, you know, from, you know, the way people use certain language so flippantly to just the general vibe and day to day life of the average person living there.”
Porter acknowledges how, culturally, Staten Island feels like it’s been cut off from New York City society in 2025. In addition to it being the forgotten borough, the Island doesn’t even feel like the rest of the boroughs. While residents located in the other boroughs have progressed with technology and infrastructure like faster subway rails or more 5G telecommunication towers, the people on Staten Island have been left behind.
This negligence has become widely accepted by Staten Islanders and have even caused citizens to be complacent.
“I think, you know, an inherent desire that comes from [Staten Island] specifically that differentiates [it] from the others in the way that you know they’re very tied to staying in the past and going towards what feels familiar, and [Mamdani] is none of those things,” Porter said.
Mamdani, for some Staten Islanders, is a huge change for both the city and the borough. Whether the comments about leaving are serious commitments or political satire, residents on Staten Island are displeased and unmotivated about their place in New York’s future.
But with New York already experiencing population decline and Staten Island residents like Marc drawing lines in the sand, the 2025 mayoral election could accelerate a demographic shift that’s already underway.
As Porter put it: “You know, they’re very welcome to leave.”
The question is whether Staten Island’s threats represent the last stand of a changing borough, or the first wave of an actual exodus.
